منابع مشابه
A puzzle about belief updating
In recent decades much literature has been produced on disagreement; the puzzling conclusion being that epistemic disagreement is, for the most part, either impossible (e.g. Aumann (Ann Stat 4(6):1236–1239, 1976)), or at least easily resolvable (e.g. Elga (Noûs 41(3):478–502, 2007)). In this paper I show that, under certain conditions, an equally puzzling result arises: that is, disagreement ca...
متن کاملA puzzle about withholding
This paper presents a puzzle about justification and withholding. The puzzle arises in a special case where experts advise us to not withhold judgment. My main thesis is simply that the puzzle is genuinely a puzzle, and so leads us to rethink some common assumptions in epistemology, specifically assumptions about the nature of justification and doxastic attitudes. Section 1 introduces the commo...
متن کاملAbout Updating
Survey of several forms of updating, with a practical illustrative example. We study several updating (conditioning) schemes that emerge naturally from a common scenario to provide some insights into their meaning. Updating is a subtle operation and there is no single method, no single 'good' rule. The choice of the appropriate rule must always be given due consideration. Planchet (1989) presen...
متن کاملA pessimistic view of optimistic belief updating
Received academic wisdom holds that human judgment is characterized by unrealistic optimism, the tendency to underestimate the likelihood of negative events and overestimate the likelihood of positive events. With recent questions being raised over the degree to which the majority of this research genuinely demonstrates optimism, attention to possible mechanisms generating such a bias becomes e...
متن کاملA “K Hypotheses + Other” Belief Updating Model
Spoken dialog systems typically rely on recognition confidence scores to guard against potential misunderstandings. While confidence scores can provide an initial assessment for the reliability of the information obtained from the user, ideally systems should leverage information that is available in subsequent user responses to update and improve the accuracy of their beliefs. We present a mac...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Synthese
سال: 2012
ISSN: 0039-7857,1573-0964
DOI: 10.1007/s11229-012-0132-9